The Emmy Awards: Who Will Win and Who Should Win

The Emmy Awards on are tonight.  I've decided this year that I'm not going to play it safe and will make some crazy predictions. AKA, I'm probably going to be completely wrong this year.  But, hey, what's the fun in guessing these things if you don't take some risk, eh?

Without further ado, my picks for who I think will win the Emmy's and who I think should win.


BEST DRAMA SERIES, the nominees are:

Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
House of Cards
Mad Men

Who Will Win: Breaking Bad
Who Should Win: Homeland

I won't be disappointed if Breaking Bad wins, seeing how it's been on a great run last year (and even better currently in it's final 8 episodes) but Homeland is definitely the best show on television, in my opinion.


BEST COMEDY SERIES, the nominees are:

30 Rock
The Big Bang Theory
Girls
Louie
Modern Family
Veep

Who Will Win: 30 Rock
Who Should Win: ???

It's probably going to go to Modern Family, if not then Louie, but I'm predicting it'll go to 30 Rock as a going away present for the show.  As for who should win, well that's impossible for me to say.  I've seen a couple of episodes of 30 Rock this season and it's pretty funny still.  But it's been a long time since I last saw Modern Family.  Nothing from this season and I need to give the other shows a chance.  It's too bad though that the real best sitcom on television wasn't nominated, the wonderful Parks and Recreation.


BEST ACTOR in a DRAMA SERIES:

Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Damian Lewis, Homeland
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards


Who Will Win: Kevin Spacey
Who Should Win: Damian Lewis


Tough category to pick.  I think most people seem to think it's a tight race between last year's Lewis and returning heavyweight Cranston, but don't count out either movie stars (Spacey and Daniels).  And if Emmy voters wish to award House of Cards something, this is probably their best and only real shot at giving it something.  Of course Daniels had that amazing speech in the pilot, the episode he submitted, but what's going against him is the fact that his show, The Newsroom, just doesn't have the buzz it use to have.  As for who should win?  Well, despite a strong turn from the always terrific Cranston, the performance that stayed with me the most, without a doubt, was Lewis's.  It's truly a riveting performance.


BEST ACTOR in a COMEDY SERIES:

Alec Baldwin in 30 Rock
Jason Bateman in Arrested Development
Don Cheadle in House of Lies
Louise CK in Louie
Matt LeBlanc in Episodes
Jim Parsons in The Big Bang Theory


Who Will Win: Louis CK
Who Should Win: ???

Again, I'm not sure who should win in this category because 30 Rock is the only one I saw a little bit of.  I will eventually catch some of the others.  As for who will win, I think it's a 3 way toss up between Louis CK, Jim Parsons or Alec Baldwin.  Baldwin could get it as a goodbye, but I think they are gonna go for Louis CK.


BEST ACTRESS in a DRAMA SERIES:

Connie Britton in Nashville
Claire Danes in Homeland
Michelle Dockery in Downton Abbey
Vera Farmiga in Bates Motel
Elisabeth Moss in Mad Men
Kerry Washington in Scandal
Robin Wright in House of Cards

Who Will Win: Claire Danes
Who Should Win: Claire Danes

Easiest category to call.  While I suppose there is a slight chance that either Washington or Farmiga could prove to be a spoiler, but I doubt it.  I'm pretty sure that Danes has this in the bag, and she should too.  It's an amazing performance.


BEST ACTRESS in a COMEDY SERIES:

Laura Dern in Enlightened
Julia Louise Dreyfuss in Veep
Lena Dunham in Girls
Edie Falco in Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey in 30 Rock
Amy Poehler in Parks and Recreation


Who Will Win: Amy Poehler
Who Should Win: Amy Poehler


This might be just wishful thinking on my part, but I do believe that this is finally Poehler's year to win.  Of last year's winner, Dreyfuss, could prove to ruin that.  And if Emmy voters are wishing to give 30 Rock one last hurrah in it's final season, Fey could take it as well.  But, as much as I love both of those ladies, I've got my fingers crossed for Poehler.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR in a DRAMA SERIES:

Jonathan Banks in Breaking Bad
Bobby Cannavale in Boardwalk Empire
Jim Carter in Downton Abbey
Peter Dinklage in Game of Thrones
Mandy Patinkin in Homeland
Aaron Paul in Breaking Bad

Who Will Win: Aaron Paul
Who Should Win: Jonathan Banks or Mandy Patinkin


Emmy voters sure do love Paul in Breaking Bad, which is why I think he's going to make history tonight and be the first actor ever to win 3 times in this category.  Normally, I would agree, Paul is awesome, but I personally felt like he was kind of underused in season 5.1 or 5a or whatever you want to call it.  I don't usually do ties, I normally find them to be a cop out, but I honestly can't choose between Banks or Patinkin.  Patinkin's work is so subtle that I fear he may be in danger of being overlooked and that would be a shame.  But Banks was also just incredible.  He's also a very subtle actor, similarly to Patinkin, but I think he had a little more to do than Patinkin did.  Still, a win by either would be fine by me.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR in a COMEDY SERIES:

Ty Burrell in Modern Family
Adam Driver in Girls
Jesse Tyler Ferguson in Modern Family
Bill Hader in Saturday Night Live
Tony Hale in Veep
Ed O'Neill in Modern Family

Who Will Win: Ed O'Neill

I think the Emmy's will go with O'Neill since he's a veteran who has never won.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS in a DRAMA SERIES:

Morena Baccarin in Homeland
Christine Baranski in The Good Wife
Emilia Clarke in Game of Thrones
Anna Gunn in Breaking Bad
Christina Hendricks in Mad Men
Maggie Smith in Downton Abbey

Who Will Win: Anna Gunn
Who Should Win: Anna Gunn

Maggie Smith could be a potential spoiler but hopefully not.  I think Smith is Gunn's only real competition although I also personally love Baccarin, but even I will go with Gunn, who was incredible in Breaking Bad in season 5.1


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS in a COMEDY SERIES:

Mayim Bialik in The Big Bang Theory
Julie Bowen in Modern Family
Anna Chlumsky in Veep
Jane Krakowski in 30 Rock
Jane Lynch in Glee
Sofia Vergara in Modern Family
Merritt Wever in Nurse Jackie


Who Will Win: Jane Krakowski

Krakowski was pretty damn funny in her episode she submitted, which was the series finale.  I think she'll win but it wouldn't surprise me either if they went with either Modern Family women.  In fact, Bowen keeps winning this.  Will she win again?  We'll find out tonight.  But I'm going with Krakowski.

Emmy Nominations Predictions

The Emmy nominations are less than 2 hours away.  So real quick, here are my predictions.  Some are bound to be right, but are bound to be way off.

Best Drama Series:

The Americans
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
Mad Men

Best Actor - Drama:

Damien Lewis in Homeland
Bryan Cranston in Breaking Bad
Timothy Olyphant in Justified
Jeff Daniels in The Newsroom
Matthew Rhys in The Americans
Kevin Spacey in House of Cards

Best Actress - Drama:

Clair Danes in Homeland
Julianna Margulies in The Good Wife
Kerri Russell in The Americans
Kerry Washington in Scandal
Robin Wright in House of Cards
Vera Farmiga in Bates Motel

Best Supporting Actor - Drama:

Mandy Patinkin in Homeland
Walton Goggins in Justified
Jonathan Banks in Breaking Bad
Aaron Paul in Breaking Bad
Noah Emmerich in The Americans
Corey Stoll in House of Cards

Best Supporting Actress - Drama:

Anna Gun in Breaking Bad
Joelle Carter in Justified
Morena Baccarin in Homeland
Monica Potter in Parenthood
Christine Baranski in The Good Wife
Maggie Smith in Downton Abbey

Comedy Series:

30 Rock
Louie
Veep
Arrested Development
The Big Bang Theory
Modern Family

Best Actor - Comedy:

Alec Baldwin in 30 Rock
Louis C.K. in Louie
Jason Bateman in Arrested Development
Jim Parsons in The Big Bang Theory
Jake Johnson in New Girl
Matt Leblanc in Episodes

Best Actress - Comedy:

Tina Fey in 30 Rock
Zoey Deschanel in New Girl
Julie Louise Dreyfuss in Veep
Lena Dunham in Girls
Edie Falco in Nurse Jackie
Melissa McCarthy in Mike and Molly

Best Supporting Actor - Comedy:

Max Greenfield in New Girl
Jeffrey Tambor in Arrested Development
Will Arnett in Arrested Development
Ty Burrell in Modern Family
Jesse Tyler Ferguson in Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet in Modern Family

Best Supporting Actress - Comedy:

Julie Bowen in Modern Family
Sofia Vergara in Modern Family
Jessica Walter in Arrested Development
Alison Williams in Girls
Jane Krakowski in 30 Rock
Kelly Cuoco in The Big Bang Theory

Later today, I'll have my official reactions to the nominees.  But these are my guesses though a few of them (Olyphant, Goggins, Carter and, to a lesser extent, Banks) are simply wishful thinking on my part.  Actually, if I REALLY wanted to put wishful thinking I'd have Fringe up for best drama series, Walking Dead for best drama series and Andrew Lincoln for best actor in a drama series.  But of course all of those, are most definitely NOT going to happen!

2013 Mid Year Review

June has ended and July has begun, which means we are officially into the second half of the year.  So how was 2013's first half?  To say the least, it's been a disappointing year.  No 4 stars movies yet, which in and of itself, is not uncommon.  But the most distressing thing about the year so far?  Only 3 3.5 star movies.  By this time, we usually have at least half a dozen or so.

To be fair, there are  still several independent films that I have yet to see.  I have yet to see the eco terrorist thriller, The East, which was given to us by the same writing/directing team that gave Another Earth a few years ago and I loved that movie.  It's on my top 10 of that year.  Another promising title I have yet to see is Upstream Color, which is from the writing/directing team of 2004's somewhat confusing but still clever and cool Primer.  Disconnect also looked promising.  Terrance Malick is always a wild card.  I like most of his stuff, but I wasn't much of a fan of The New World.  And while I thought Tree of Life was, for the most part, a terrific movie, it got off to a rough start.  This year, Malick had out what may be his most divisive film yet with To the Wonder.  I want to say that I'm looking forward to it, but I hear most of the dialog is told in voice over narration.  That does dampen my excitement for the movie.  A big Hollywood movie that I, unfortunately, missed out in theaters was Bazz Lurhman's latest, The Great Gatsby.  Reviews for that one were all over the place, but that's pretty much true of almost any of Lurhman's movies.  I was particularly sad to miss out on that one since it seemed like a movie that should have been seen on the big screen.  I also have yet to see Before Midnight.  I haven't even seen Before Sunset yet and I want to see that one before I see Midnight.  One of the year's most critically acclaimed movies was the Matthew McConaughey film, Mud.  That comes to us from the director of the excellent Take Shelter.  I hope to see that one soon.  A few other promising movies I missed include Stoker, The Company You Keep, The Kings of Summer, Trance, Spring Breakers and 42 among others.  I also will be seeing Sofia Coppola's latest, The Bling Ring, sometime in the next day or so.  So, yes.  2013 has been a weak year so far, certainly for big Hollywood studio efforts (several disappointments too, some of which I'll talk about in the worst of the year list), but the year might be saved by independent movies.  We shall see.

Without further do, here are my top 10 of 2013 so far:

10. The Last Stand - Arnold Schwarzenegger was back and he remains in solid form.  The Last Stand is aided immeasurably by Kim Jee-Woon's very stylish direction.  There are some great car chases in the movie, my favorite being one near the end through a corn field.  The supporting cast is surprisingly strong, particularly, and perhaps surprisingly, Johnny Knoxville, playing a guy who loves his gun.  He's a hoot to watch.  And so is the movie.

9. The Internship - In a year that has had it's fair share of disappointments, The Internship came as a pleasant surprise.  Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn are almost as good here as they were together in Wedding Crashers.  There is nothing remotely original about this movie.  It's definitely a very formulaic film.  But it's an immensely likeable effort and frequently funny and even, surprisingly, a little touching at times.  Also loved the chemistry between Owen Wilson and the lovely Rose Byrn.  Any movie is made better by her presence.  I just wish she had more to do here.

8. Now You See Me - A clever and mostly well written movie, that begins as an usual heist movie, but by the end, morphs into kind of a revenge film.  To say anymore though should be a crime.  This is a movie best left for you to watch it unravel before your eyes.  It's a well cast movie, with Mark Ruffalo being especially good.  The only downside to the movie is that the chase scenes are filmed shaky cam style.

7. World War Z - With reports of production woes and reshoots, there was every reason to expect a complete disaster with this movie.  But surprise, surprise.  It's actually quite good.  Taut, fast paced and extremely well directed by the always reliable Marc Forster, World War Z zips along at a good pace from one great set piece to the next.  The first twenty minutes are especially dazzlingly and horrifyingly well done.  With other great scenes set in Israel, an airplane and North Wales, it all comes to an immensely satisfying conclusion.  A nice surprise.

6.  Fast and Furious 6 - No, I did not do this on purpose.  Easily my favorite of the franchise, surpassing Fast & Furious (the 4th film) and Fast Five.  It's got a cool story involving Letty's reappearance after long being thought dead.  And some great action set pieces involving a tank and the terrific climax set on an airplane trying to leave a runaway.  Great stuff.

5. White House Down/Olympus Has Fallen - The two "Die Hard in the White House" movies that came out this year.  I can't really pick one from another.  I enjoyed both of them about equally.  The sad part is that both of these movies are easily then the actual Die Hard movie that came out.  Sigh.

4. Dead Man Down - Colin Farrell and Noomi Rapace are both excellent, playing characters who have been wounded on the inside and both looking for revenge.  It's a taut, moody, atmospheric, wonderfully acted revenge thriller.  Bonus: it was shot here, in Philly.

3. Jack the Giant Slayer - The year's best surprise.  The trailers and commercials failed to grab my attention, consequently, I went in with low expectations.  I never should have doubted Bryan Singer, the director.  He hasn't given me any reason to doubt him before, he is after all the guy behind The Usual Suspects, X-Men 1 & 2, Superman Returns and Valkyrie.  I'll never doubt him again.  The leads are appealing, the supporting cast, especially Ewan McGregory, are wonderful.  The special effects and battle scenes are astonishing.  And I loved how it ended.  I loved every minute of this LOTR's type epic retelling of the popular fairy tale.

2. Iron Man 3 - The only big Hollywood epic this summer that was actually great.  Shane Black is a better director filmmaker than Jon Favreau and he definitely does a better job of directing action sequences than Favreau.  One of the best scenes of the movie, which is also one of the best scenes of any movie I have seen this year, is a scene where Air Force One is attacked, and Iron Man has to rescue 13 people who are falling to their deaths from the plane.  It's a fantastic sequence.

1. Side Effects - Supposedly, this will be Steven Soderbergh's final theatrical released film.  I somehow doubt that will be the case, but if does end up being true, then at least Soderbergh will have gone out on a high note.  I won't even bother with saying anything about the plot.  This is a movie that is best going in and watching knowing NOTHING about it.  It's got so many twists and turns.  It's wonderfully unpredictable.  I loved every minute of this movie.  Great performances from top to bottom with special mention going to Rooney Mara in a very tricky role and Jude Law, whose character goes through a real tailspin and Law never misses a beat.


That's the best and now here are the year's worst.

My Bottom 5 of the year:

5. Broken City - A crime/morality thriller that lacks any interesting characters and a story that's dull and too much that goes too much into been there/done that territory.

4. Oblivion - A dull, plodding movie.  Movie looks great, the production design is stunning.  And there are individual moments that work, movie actually gets off to a promising start.  But the movie takes itself so seriously, it's just not fun, and quite frankly it's boring.

3. A Good Day to Die Hard - The year's biggest disappointment.  I was probably more harsh on the movie than I needed to be.  Truth be told, if this was just another generic action movie, I probably would have given it 2 stars, rather than 1.5.  But since they are trying to pass this off as a Die Hard movie and since they call the Bruce Willis character John McClane, it just made me all the more angry.  A soul crushing experience.

2. Lords of Salem - It's a Rob Zombie movie.  Nuff said.

1. Scary Movie V - About as unwatchable as movies get.  The Scary Movie films were never great, but even the dreadful first film, wasn't this bad.  This is so bad that you'd be forgiven for thinking it was from the same guys who gave us Meet the Spartans, Disaster Movie, Epic Movie, etc.


That's the first half of 2013.  Here's hoping for a better second half.

Next off: a list of movies I'm looking forward to for the fall movie season, Emmy nomination coverage including shows and names that I would like to see get nominations (but most of them, if not all of them likely won't).  I'll also do my predictions.  And some movie reviews and some television reviews, including the end of Breaking Bad next month.

The Academy Awards: Who Will and Should Win

Here are my last minute predictions for tonight's Academy Award's.  Plus who I think should win.


BEST PICTURE:

The nominees:

Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Who Will Win: Argo
Who Should Win: Life of Pi


BEST DIRECTOR:

Michael Heneke, Amour
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Who Will Win: Steven Spielberg
Who Should Win: Ang Lee


BEST ACTOR:

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Who Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis


 BEST ACTRESS:

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuel Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Who Should Win: Naomi Watts


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Who Will Win: Robert De Niro
Who Should Win: Robert De Niro


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway
Who Should Win: Helen Hunt (though I haven't seen Les Miz yet)


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook

Who Will Win: Argo
Who Should Win: Life of Pi


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

Who Will Win: Django Unchained
Who Should Win: Flight


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck it Ralph

Who Will Win: Wreck it Ralph
Who Should Win: Brave


BEST FOREIGN FILM:

Amour
Kon-Tiki
No
A Royal Affair
War Witch

Who Will Win: Amour


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Who Will Win: Life of Pi
Who Will Win: Life of Pi


BEST FILM EDITING:

Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Who Will Win: Argo


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

Anna Karenina
The Hobbit
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln

Who Will Win: Anna Karenina
Who Should Win: The Hobbit


BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman

Who Will Win: Anna Karenina


BEST MAKEUP:

Hitchcock
The Hobbit
Les Miserables

Who Will Win: Les Miserables


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Who Will Win: Skyfall
Who Should Win: Lincoln


BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

Before My Time from the movie Chasing Ice
Everybody Needs a Best Friend from Ted
Pi's Lullaby from Life of Pi
Skyfall from Skyfall
Suddenly from Les Miserables

Who Will Win: Skyfall
Who Should Win: Skyfall (though I loved Everybody Needs a Best Friend as well)


BEST SOUND MIXING:

Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Who Will Win: Les Miserables


BEST SOUND EDITING:

Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Who Will Win: Zero Dark Thirty


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

The Avengers
The Hobbit
Life of Pi
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman

Who Will Win: Life of Pi
Who Should Win: Life of Pi


And briefly the documentary and short categories:

Best Documentary Feature
Who Will Win: Searching for Sugar Man

Best Documentary Short
Who Will Win: Inocente

Best Animated Short
Who Will Win: Paperman

Best Live Action Short
Who Will Win: Henry


I know next to nothing about these categories so they are basically just complete guesses.  A shot in the dark.

A Good Day to Die Hard review

I hope this movie doesn't kill the Die Hard franchise, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did. Unfortunately, the movie is pretty much as bad as the critics are saying. It breaks my heart to say this, but this movie really did just flat out suck. Seriously, can I erase the 90+ minutes of the movie from my memory so that the term bad Die Hard movie doesn't exist?

 If you thought Live Free or Die Hard was laughably cartoonish, wait until you see this movie. This movie makes all of the other DH movies look like documentaries by comparison. Now, the movie doesn't start out all that bad. There is a car chase early in the movie on the streets of Moscow that, while utterly preposterous even by Die Hard standards, was still pretty entertaining. Heck, the hotel room scene wasn't that bad either. It was kind of cool. This movie didn't officially loose me until me get to Chernobyl. And then it becomes utter shit.

 John Moore's direction is extremely lousy. We are talking amateur hour here. The beginning of this movie contains WAY too many zoom ins and outs. It's as if Moore was given a camcorder for the first time and he over does the zoom in and outs. It gets so incredibly aggravating. And then during the climax in Chernobyl, he over uses slow motion. And that got so damn annoying that I was starting to miss the zooms.

 Then we have the movie's pitiful attempt at creating some father/son drama and shit about how John was never there for his kids because he was always working. BOO-FUCKING-HOO! None of this stuff works. It feels completely phony. It is so badly written.

 But perhaps the most disappointing thing of all in this movie is John McClane himself, and most notably Bruce Willis. I can't believe I'm saying this, but McClane actually comes off as kind of annoying a lot of times. This is not the likeable, affable and badass John McClane from previous films. He's constantly bitching about how he's on vacation. Oh, I get it that it's suppose to come off as funny. It's not. And Bruce Willis is practically sleep walking through this entire movie. His performance is completely phoned in. He puts no energy into the movie whatsoever. It almost feels as if like he just doesn't give a damn anymore. Ugh.

 This may be the single most disappointing movie I have EVER seen! It's jaw-dropping how awful this movie gets. And the very last scene just made me want to roll my eyes. This is not a Die Hard movie. This is a very bad parody of a Die Hard movie! At 97 minutes in length, this is easily the shortest of all the Die Hard movies. But it FEELS like the longest by a landslide.

Grade: C-

My Probably Way Off Academy Awards Predictions

Less than an hour till the nominations are announced.  Here are my probably way off predictions ( ;) ) predictions.


BEST PICTURE:

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Flight
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty


Everybody seems to be in agreement that this was such a strong year for movies that there will definitely be 10 nominees.  I'm gonna gamble and say Skyfall WILL make it in.  Nothing would thrill me more than to see The Dark Knight Rises come in, but I think there is only room for one major action movie and that will likely go to Skyfall rather than TDKR.

If Skyfall doesn't make it in other possibilities include Michael Heneke's Amour, The Impossible, Wes Anderson's Moonrise Kingdom, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and Paul Thomas Anderson's The Master.



BEST DIRECTOR:

Ben Affleck, Argo
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty


I'm gonna go a head and predict Russell makes it in over Les Miserables' Tom Hooper.  Though also not to be counted out is Michael Heneke.  Heck, it's even possible that Quentin Tarantino or Paul Thomas Anderson make it in.  Heck, I wouldn't even entirely count out Sam Mendes even though he's admittedly a dark horse.


Best Actor:

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

There are 6 major contenders but only 5 slots.  The sixth contender, and the one I'm predicting to be left out, is John Hawkes for his wonderful performance in The Sessions.  If I'm wrong, then they may leave out Cooper, though I believe that movie was loved by a lot of people and therefore think Cooper will be safe.  It's also possible that Phoenix could be left out, but I'm betting that won't happen.


BEST ACTRESS:

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea


Chastain and Lawrence are a definite lock.  And Watts and Cotillard are a pretty safe bet.  That leaves just one slot left.  Many people are predicting it will be a battle between the very young (Quvenzhane Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild) and the very old (Emmanuelle Riva in Amour) but I'm gonna make a bold prediction that it's neither of them.  Instead I predict that 5th slot will go to surprise contender Weisz, who has already been a surprise in a couple of other awards nominations.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained


Like the best actor category, there are 6 major contenders and only 5 slots, but there is caveat to that.  It is entirely possible that there could be a surprise 7th contender in Javier Bardem in Skyfall.  But I don't think that's going to happen.  As for the other one, there is also Leonardo Dicaprio for Django Unchained.  I'm predicting he doesn't get in, but if he does, I fear it may be at De Niro's expense.  I hope not though.  It could be at Waltz's expense too, but I also hope that's not the case.  I really want both Waltz and De Niro to make it.  They are both fantastic.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Amy Adams, The Master
Judi Dench, Skyfall
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions


Dench is probably wishful thinking on my part.  But she was fantastic in her final Bond outing and deserves to make it.  In her place will likely be either Maggie Smith for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel or Anne Dowd for Compliance.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Django Unchained
Flight
Looper
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

Other possibilities: The Master, Amour


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Silver Linings Playbook

Other possibility: Beasts of the Southern Wild


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Secret World Arrietty
Wreck it Ralph

Nothing would please me more than to see Brave snubbed in this category, but alas, I don't think it will happen.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Other possibility: Anna Karenina, The Hobbit, Django Unchained, Prometheus, Les Miserables, The Impossible


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Prometheus

Other possibilities: Django Unchained, Skyfall, John Carter, Cloud Atlas.


BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Snow White and the Huntsman

Other possibilities: John Carter, A Royal Affair, Cloud Atlas.


BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP:

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln
Men in Black 3

Other possibilities: Les Miserables, Looper, John Carter.


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

The Avengers
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit
Life of Pi
Prometheus

Other possibilities: The Impossible, The Dark Knight Rises, The Amazing Spider-Man, Skyfall.



That's all I'm gonna predict.  A couple of notes:


- I hope Skyfall gets nominated for best original song.  Adele's Skyfall is a great tune.  Same with the song from Ted, "Everybody Needs a Best Friend."

- I hope John Carter gets nominated for it's awesome score.  Michael Giacchino is the man!